per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

6495.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.3335	0.2592 – 0.4202	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.7221	0.6773 – 0.7616	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	161.7	-17.1 – 416.1	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	260.0	179.6 – 285.5	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0290	0.0232 – 0.0354	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0240	0.0217 – 0.0288	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

53.8

short

59.4

total

113.2

appearances 109824 · LONG 3147 · SHORT 2683

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.