per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

5253.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.3983	0.3834 – 0.5176	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.4758	0.3690 – 0.6556	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-98.3	-125.8 – -31.8	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	-104.0	-162.6 – 73.0	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0049	0.0043 – 0.0055	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0019	0.0014 – 0.0023	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-26.6

short

-9.3147

total

-35.9

appearances 572352 · LONG 2874 · SHORT 1154

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.