per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

4222.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.4105	0.3937 – 0.5089	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.5450	0.5247 – 0.5592	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-98.5	-169.5 – 11.6	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	90.2	0.5458 – 115.6	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0132	0.0112 – 0.0156	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0245	0.0229 – 0.0258	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-22.2

short

57.6

total

35.3

appearances 318720 · LONG 4280 · SHORT 7575

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.