per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

3948.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.1875	0.1529 – 0.3909	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.2147	0.0726 – 0.3787	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-29.6	-121.2 – 72.0	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	-119.5	-368.7 – -41.1	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0047	0.0034 – 0.0075	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0051	0.0033 – 0.0081	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

1.3432

short

-9.6121

total

-8.2689

appearances 111360 · LONG 572 · SHORT 656

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.