per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

3904.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.3746	0.1630 – 0.4527	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.7156	0.6653 – 0.8802	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-89.4	-172.8 – 14.5	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	319.0	189.0 – 394.9	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0098	0.0080 – 0.0112	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0071	0.0062 – 0.0096	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-20.2

short

96.0

total

75.8

appearances 367872 · LONG 3437 · SHORT 2985

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.