per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

3628.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.4477	0.4353 – 0.4869	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.6372	0.6065 – 0.6611	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-88.4	-125.8 – -30.3	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	181.3	55.2 – 234.6	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0222	0.0210 – 0.0246	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0179	0.0155 – 0.0198	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-49.9

short

83.9

total

34.0

appearances 285696 · LONG 6260 · SHORT 5031

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.