per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

3479.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.7451	0.7245 – 0.7697	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.4902	0.2807 – 0.6038	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	183.0	148.2 – 209.4	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	32.6	-31.7 – 59.8	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0048	0.0042 – 0.0051	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0012	0.0007 – 0.0016	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

69.5

short

0.9654

total

70.4

appearances 817152 · LONG 3922 · SHORT 961

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.