per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

2936.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.3598	0.3099 – 0.4276	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.3868	0.3531 – 0.3983	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-138.9	-198.0 – -81.6	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	-304.3	-363.8 – -204.7	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0114	0.0105 – 0.0126	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0136	0.0128 – 0.0149	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-88.5

short

-217.2

total

-305.7

appearances 573888 · LONG 6797 · SHORT 7921

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.