# Sales Growth Rank (JP Growth Stocks)

- **Slug**: `sales-growth-rank-jp-growth`
- **Verdict**: rejected (regime_dependent)
- **Asset class**: equity
- **Categories**: factor, fundamental, growth
- **Source**: qbuntu-analysis (computed asof 2026-08-03T01:03:06)
- **Reproducibility**: analysis-engine@2f23bb7, backtest-lib@711b855, grid tier=shallow (python 3.10.11, numpy 2.2.6, pandas 2.3.3)
- **HTML**: https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/sales-growth-rank-jp-growth
- **JSON**: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/strategies/sales-growth-rank-jp-growth
- **License**: CC-BY-4.0

## Hypothesis

Top-line growth is the simplest growth signal retail screens sort on; ranking on year-over-year sales growth tests whether revenue growth alone predicts returns, or is already priced in (the classic growth-factor disappointment).

## Why it didn't work

Across 48 grid combinations, median Sharpe=-0.17, best=2.49. Primary failure mode: regime_dependent.

## Performance summary

Headline figures are the **median across the parameter grid**, not the best run.

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sharpe (median) | -0.1667 |
| Max drawdown | -7% |
| p-value | 0.47 |
| Backtest period | 2025-01-06 to 2026-06-01 |

Sharpe distribution across 48 grid runs: median -0.17, best 2.49 (best-case — not representative), worst -1.18, p25 -0.59, p75 0.65.

## Methodology

- Notes: {"walk_forward_definition": {"type": "single_pass", "description": "Full period backtest without walk-forward split", "verdict_basis": "full_period"}}
- Slippage model: open-on-open + variable bps fixed
- Position sizing: equal_weight
- Regime definition: N225 SMA20/SMA60 three-class
- Transaction cost bps: 5

## Target universe

Tokyo Stock Exchange Growth Market, ~495 stocks, tv >= 30M JPY; fundamentals from J-Quants financial statements (coverage from 2023-12)

## Runs (30)

| run_id | params | sharpe | UP | FLAT | DOWN |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0000` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=false, holding_days=1 | 0.61 | 0.81 | 0.13 | 3.47 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0001` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=false, holding_days=5 | -0.09 | -0.3 | -0.79 | 3.08 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0002` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=false, holding_days=20 | -1.09 | -1.41 | -2 | 21.12 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0003` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=true, holding_days=1 | -0.14 | -0.58 | 0.13 | 3.47 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0004` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=true, holding_days=5 | 0.21 | 0.78 | -0.79 | 3.08 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0005` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=true, holding_days=20 | -1.14 | -1.39 | -2 | 21.12 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0006` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=false, holding_days=1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | -0.04 | 3.04 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0007` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=false, holding_days=5 | -0.2 | -0.42 | -0.9 | 2.99 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0008` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=false, holding_days=20 | -1.16 | -1.49 | -2.06 | 20.68 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0009` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=true, holding_days=1 | -0.26 | -0.63 | -0.04 | 3.04 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0010` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=true, holding_days=5 | 0.12 | 0.67 | -0.9 | 2.99 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0011` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=true, holding_days=20 | -1.18 | -1.42 | -2.06 | 20.68 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0012` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=false, holding_days=1 | 0.1 | -0.01 | -0.7 | 6.36 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0013` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=false, holding_days=5 | 0.94 | 1.43 | -0.54 | 18.61 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0014` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=false, holding_days=20 | -0.59 | -0.57 | -1.59 | 44.4 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0015` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=true, holding_days=1 | -0.52 | -0.99 | -0.7 | 6.36 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0016` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=true, holding_days=5 | 1.11 | 1.8 | -0.54 | 18.61 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0017` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=true, holding_days=20 | -0.79 | -0.96 | -1.59 | 44.4 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0018` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=false, holding_days=1 | -0.27 | -0.67 | -1.01 | 5.81 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0019` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=false, holding_days=5 | 0.78 | 1.25 | -0.71 | 18.05 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0020` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=false, holding_days=20 | -0.68 | -0.7 | -1.66 | 43.32 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0021` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=true, holding_days=1 | -0.68 | -1.07 | -1.01 | 5.81 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0022` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=true, holding_days=5 | 0.99 | 1.72 | -0.71 | 18.05 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0023` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=true, holding_days=20 | -0.84 | -0.99 | -1.66 | 43.32 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0024` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=20, regime_gate=false, holding_days=1 | 0.53 | -0.65 | 0.16 | 8.43 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0025` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=20, regime_gate=false, holding_days=5 | 2.49 | 2.1 | 1.97 | 7.15 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0026` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=20, regime_gate=false, holding_days=20 | 0.29 | 0.39 | -0.51 | 7.27 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0027` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=20, regime_gate=true, holding_days=1 | -0.24 | -0.91 | 0.16 | 8.43 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0028` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=20, regime_gate=true, holding_days=5 | 2.19 | 1.65 | 1.97 | 7.15 |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-0036` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=50, regime_gate=false, holding_days=1 | -0.09 | -0.04 | -2.02 | 13.63 |

## Facts (5)

Each fact has a permanent citation URL. AI agents quoting qbuntu should use these.

- **Best grid Sharpe ratio is 2.49 (p=0.0084).**
  - Value: 2.49 sharpe_ratio
  - Context: period 2025-01-06–2026-06-01; cost=5bps
  - Supports verdict: `rejected`
  - Cite: https://qbuntu.ai/cite/sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-fact-best-sharpe

- **Median Sharpe across 48 grid runs is -0.17.**
  - Value: -0.17 sharpe_ratio
  - Context: Full grid of 48 parameter combinations.
  - Supports verdict: `rejected`
  - Cite: https://qbuntu.ai/cite/sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-fact-median-sharpe

- **Median Sharpe in DOWN regime is 7.47 across 48 runs.**
  - Value: 7.47 sharpe_ratio
  - Context: Regime=DOWN, N225 SMA20/SMA60 classification.
  - Supports verdict: `rejected`
  - Cite: https://qbuntu.ai/cite/sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-fact-regime-down

- **Median Sharpe in FLAT regime is -0.70 across 48 runs.**
  - Value: -0.7 sharpe_ratio
  - Context: Regime=FLAT, N225 SMA20/SMA60 classification.
  - Supports verdict: `rejected`
  - Cite: https://qbuntu.ai/cite/sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-fact-regime-flat

- **Median Sharpe in UP regime is -0.48 across 48 runs.**
  - Value: -0.48 sharpe_ratio
  - Context: Regime=UP, N225 SMA20/SMA60 classification.
  - Supports verdict: `rejected`
  - Cite: https://qbuntu.ai/cite/sales-growth-rank-jp-growth-fact-regime-up

## Related strategies

- same_strategy: [sales-growth-rank-jp-all](https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/sales-growth-rank-jp-all)

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Cite as: qbuntu (2026). Sales Growth Rank (JP Growth Stocks). https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/sales-growth-rank-jp-growth

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