# Sales Growth Rank (JP All Stocks)

- **Slug**: `sales-growth-rank-jp-all`
- **Verdict**: rejected (signal_frequency)
- **Asset class**: equity
- **Categories**: factor, fundamental, growth
- **Source**: qbuntu-analysis (computed asof 2026-08-05T03:19:13)
- **Reproducibility**: analysis-engine@2f23bb7, backtest-lib@711b855, grid tier=shallow (python 3.10.11, numpy 2.2.6, pandas 2.3.3)
- **HTML**: https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/sales-growth-rank-jp-all
- **JSON**: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/strategies/sales-growth-rank-jp-all
- **License**: CC-BY-4.0

## Hypothesis

Top-line growth is the simplest growth signal retail screens sort on; ranking on year-over-year sales growth tests whether revenue growth alone predicts returns, or is already priced in (the classic growth-factor disappointment).

## Why it didn't work

Across 24 grid combinations, median Sharpe=-1.73, best=0.69. Primary failure mode: signal_frequency.

## Performance summary

Headline figures are the **median across the parameter grid**, not the best run.

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sharpe (median) | -1.7328 |
| Max drawdown | -6.7% |
| p-value | 0.21 |
| Backtest period | 2025-06-02 to 2026-02-02 |

Sharpe distribution across 24 grid runs: median -1.73, best 0.69 (best-case — not representative), worst -3.87, p25 -2.59, p75 -1.05.

## Methodology

- Notes: {"walk_forward_definition": {"type": "single_pass", "description": "Full period backtest without walk-forward split", "verdict_basis": "full_period"}}
- Slippage model: open-on-open + variable bps fixed
- Position sizing: equal_weight
- Regime definition: N225 SMA20/SMA60 three-class
- Transaction cost bps: 5

## Target universe

Tokyo Stock Exchange all listed (Prime/Standard/Growth), ~3747 stocks; fundamentals from J-Quants financial statements (coverage from 2023-12)

## Runs (24)

| run_id | params | sharpe | UP | FLAT | DOWN |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0000` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=false, holding_days=1 | -1.23 | -1.03 | -1.58 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0001` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=false, holding_days=5 | -0.94 | -1.05 | -1.09 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0002` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=false, holding_days=20 | -2.21 | -2.84 | -1.3 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0003` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=true, holding_days=1 | -1.21 | -0.72 | -1.58 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0004` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=true, holding_days=5 | 0.69 | 3.63 | -1.09 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0005` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=true, holding_days=20 | -2.05 | -2.52 | -1.3 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0006` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=false, holding_days=1 | -1.4 | -1.16 | -1.83 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0007` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=false, holding_days=5 | -1.01 | -1.1 | -1.32 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0008` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=false, holding_days=20 | -2.29 | -2.91 | -1.6 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0009` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=true, holding_days=1 | -1.41 | -0.88 | -1.83 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0010` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=true, holding_days=5 | 0.49 | 3.42 | -1.32 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0011` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=5, regime_gate=true, holding_days=20 | -2.13 | -2.57 | -1.6 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0012` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=false, holding_days=1 | -2.27 | -1.03 | -3.59 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0013` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=false, holding_days=5 | -0.9 | 3.21 | -3.17 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0014` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=false, holding_days=20 | -3.73 | -3.3 | -5.8 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0015` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=true, holding_days=1 | -2.74 | -2.21 | -3.59 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0016` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=true, holding_days=5 | -0.97 | 6.12 | -3.17 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0017` | cost_bps=5, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=true, holding_days=20 | -3.79 | -3.44 | -5.8 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0018` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=false, holding_days=1 | -2.53 | -2.03 | -3.81 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0019` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=false, holding_days=5 | -1.06 | 2.83 | -3.33 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0020` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=false, holding_days=20 | -3.85 | -3.38 | -6.04 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0021` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=true, holding_days=1 | -2.91 | -2.51 | -3.81 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0022` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=true, holding_days=5 | -1.08 | 5.74 | -3.33 | — |
| `r-sales-growth-rank-jp-all-0023` | cost_bps=10, n_stocks=10, regime_gate=true, holding_days=20 | -3.87 | -3.48 | -6.04 | — |

## Facts (5)

Each fact has a permanent citation URL. AI agents quoting qbuntu should use these.

- **Best grid Sharpe ratio is 0.69 (p=0.56).**
  - Value: 0.69 sharpe_ratio
  - Context: period 2025-06-02–2026-02-02; cost=5bps
  - Supports verdict: `rejected`
  - Cite: https://qbuntu.ai/cite/sales-growth-rank-jp-all-fact-best-sharpe

- **Median Sharpe across 24 grid runs is -1.73.**
  - Value: -1.73 sharpe_ratio
  - Context: Full grid of 24 parameter combinations.
  - Supports verdict: `rejected`
  - Cite: https://qbuntu.ai/cite/sales-growth-rank-jp-all-fact-median-sharpe

- **Median Sharpe in DOWN regime is nan across 24 runs.**
  - Context: Regime=DOWN, N225 SMA20/SMA60 classification.
  - Supports verdict: `rejected`
  - Cite: https://qbuntu.ai/cite/sales-growth-rank-jp-all-fact-regime-down

- **Median Sharpe in FLAT regime is -2.50 across 24 runs.**
  - Value: -2.5 sharpe_ratio
  - Context: Regime=FLAT, N225 SMA20/SMA60 classification.
  - Supports verdict: `rejected`
  - Cite: https://qbuntu.ai/cite/sales-growth-rank-jp-all-fact-regime-flat

- **Median Sharpe in UP regime is -1.13 across 24 runs.**
  - Value: -1.13 sharpe_ratio
  - Context: Regime=UP, N225 SMA20/SMA60 classification.
  - Supports verdict: `rejected`
  - Cite: https://qbuntu.ai/cite/sales-growth-rank-jp-all-fact-regime-up

## Related strategies

- same_strategy: [sales-growth-rank-jp-growth](https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/sales-growth-rank-jp-growth)

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Cite as: qbuntu (2026). Sales Growth Rank (JP All Stocks). https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/sales-growth-rank-jp-all

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