# さいか屋 (8254.T) — per-stock model accuracy

> Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

- **Name**: さいか屋
- **Sector**: 小売
- **Universe**: jp-listed
- **Decomposes**: `ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth` (strategy verdict: marginal) — https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth
- **Computed asof**: 2026-10-01T02:33:09
- **HTML**: https://qbuntu.ai/stocks/8254.T
- **JSON**: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/stocks/8254.T
- **License**: CC-BY-4.0

## Accuracy (median across grid)

Median LONG hit rate is 0.3498 — below a coin flip.

| metric | median | p25 | p75 | n |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| hit_rate_long | 0.3498 | 0.2268 | 0.3717 | 12 |
| hit_rate_short | 0.3220 | 0.2965 | 0.3855 | 12 |
| avg_return_long_bps | -278.0 | -315.4 | -201.8 | 12 |
| avg_return_short_bps | -177.0 | -237.2 | -158.8 | 12 |
| selection_rate_long | 0.0180 | 0.0156 | 0.0206 | 12 |
| selection_rate_short | 0.0215 | 0.0187 | 0.0250 | 12 |

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps/trade. Metrics with n = 0 are omitted; n < 5 is a thin sample.

## PnL contribution

- long: -66.2
- short: -60.9
- total: -127.1
- appearances: LONG 2498 / SHORT 3063 of 138240

---

Research, not investment advice. These metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.
Cite as: qbuntu (2026). 8254.T per-stock accuracy. https://qbuntu.ai/stocks/8254.T