# アルファパーチェス (7115.T) — per-stock model accuracy

> Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

- **Name**: アルファパーチェス
- **Sector**: 商社・卸売
- **Universe**: jp-listed
- **Decomposes**: `ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth` (strategy verdict: marginal) — https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth
- **Computed asof**: 2026-10-01T02:33:09
- **HTML**: https://qbuntu.ai/stocks/7115.T
- **JSON**: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/stocks/7115.T
- **License**: CC-BY-4.0

## Accuracy (median across grid)

Median LONG hit rate is 0.3667 — below a coin flip.

| metric | median | p25 | p75 | n |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| hit_rate_long | 0.3667 | 0.2532 | 0.4821 | 12 |
| hit_rate_short | 0.7738 | 0.3847 | 0.9434 | 12 |
| avg_return_long_bps | -105.8 | -207.6 | -45.3 | 12 |
| avg_return_short_bps | 44.6 | -90.3 | 136.7 | 12 |
| selection_rate_long | 0.0046 | 0.0038 | 0.0056 | 12 |
| selection_rate_short | 0.0012 | 0.0004 | 0.0018 | 12 |

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps/trade. Metrics with n = 0 are omitted; n < 5 is a thin sample.

## PnL contribution

- long: -16.6
- short: -1.0952
- total: -17.6
- appearances: LONG 1636 / SHORT 483 of 382656

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Research, not investment advice. These metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.
Cite as: qbuntu (2026). 7115.T per-stock accuracy. https://qbuntu.ai/stocks/7115.T