# 新日本理化 (4406.T) — per-stock model accuracy

> Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

- **Name**: 新日本理化
- **Sector**: 素材・化学
- **Universe**: jp-listed
- **Decomposes**: `ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth` (strategy verdict: marginal) — https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth
- **Computed asof**: 2026-10-01T02:33:09
- **HTML**: https://qbuntu.ai/stocks/4406.T
- **JSON**: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/stocks/4406.T
- **License**: CC-BY-4.0

## Accuracy (median across grid)

Median LONG hit rate is 0.7795 — above a coin flip — still not a buy signal.

| metric | median | p25 | p75 | n |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| hit_rate_long | 0.7795 | 0.6329 | 0.8463 | 12 |
| hit_rate_short (thin n) | 0.5000 | 0.2500 | 0.7500 | 2 |
| avg_return_long_bps | 110.2 | 55.2 | 200.0 | 12 |
| avg_return_short_bps (thin n) | 509.4 | 66.8 | 952.0 | 2 |
| selection_rate_long | 0.0005 | 0.0001 | 0.0009 | 12 |
| selection_rate_short | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps/trade. Metrics with n = 0 are omitted; n < 5 is a thin sample.

## PnL contribution

- long: 4.8994
- short: -0.0485
- total: 4.8510
- appearances: LONG 348 / SHORT 6 of 673536

---

Research, not investment advice. These metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.
Cite as: qbuntu (2026). 4406.T per-stock accuracy. https://qbuntu.ai/stocks/4406.T