# 大阪ソーダ (4046.T) — per-stock model accuracy

> Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

- **Name**: 大阪ソーダ
- **Sector**: 素材・化学
- **Universe**: jp-listed
- **Decomposes**: `ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth` (strategy verdict: marginal) — https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth
- **Computed asof**: 2026-10-01T02:33:09
- **HTML**: https://qbuntu.ai/stocks/4046.T
- **JSON**: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/stocks/4046.T
- **License**: CC-BY-4.0

## Accuracy (median across grid)

Median LONG hit rate is 0.6272 — above a coin flip — still not a buy signal.

| metric | median | p25 | p75 | n |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| hit_rate_long | 0.6272 | 0.5056 | 0.7560 | 12 |
| hit_rate_short | 0.8333 | 0.5278 | 1 | 11 |
| avg_return_long_bps | 70.2 | -45.2 | 136.3 | 12 |
| avg_return_short_bps | 1.9617 | 1.9617 | 64.2 | 11 |
| selection_rate_long | 0.0015 | 0.0013 | 0.0017 | 12 |
| selection_rate_short | 0.0001 | 0 | 0.0001 | 12 |

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps/trade. Metrics with n = 0 are omitted; n < 5 is a thin sample.

## PnL contribution

- long: 7.3146
- short: 0.4668
- total: 7.7814
- appearances: LONG 1367 / SHORT 120 of 871680

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Research, not investment advice. These metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.
Cite as: qbuntu (2026). 4046.T per-stock accuracy. https://qbuntu.ai/stocks/4046.T