# マネーフォワード (3994.T) — per-stock model accuracy

> Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

- **Name**: マネーフォワード
- **Sector**: 情報通信・サービスその他
- **Universe**: jp-listed
- **Decomposes**: `ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth` (strategy verdict: marginal) — https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth
- **Computed asof**: 2026-10-01T02:33:09
- **HTML**: https://qbuntu.ai/stocks/3994.T
- **JSON**: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/stocks/3994.T
- **License**: CC-BY-4.0

## Accuracy (median across grid)

Median LONG hit rate is 0.5995 — above a coin flip — still not a buy signal.

| metric | median | p25 | p75 | n |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| hit_rate_long | 0.5995 | 0.5047 | 0.6490 | 12 |
| hit_rate_short | 0.6200 | 0.5032 | 0.7085 | 12 |
| avg_return_long_bps | 84.4 | 39.5 | 95.6 | 12 |
| avg_return_short_bps | 13.3 | -31.2 | 159.7 | 12 |
| selection_rate_long | 0.0042 | 0.0039 | 0.0047 | 12 |
| selection_rate_short | 0.0025 | 0.0017 | 0.0035 | 12 |

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps/trade. Metrics with n = 0 are omitted; n < 5 is a thin sample.

## PnL contribution

- long: 22.1
- short: 8.9483
- total: 31.0
- appearances: LONG 3764 / SHORT 2223 of 871680

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Research, not investment advice. These metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.
Cite as: qbuntu (2026). 3994.T per-stock accuracy. https://qbuntu.ai/stocks/3994.T