# ショーケース (3909.T) — per-stock model accuracy

> Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

- **Name**: ショーケース
- **Sector**: 情報通信・サービスその他
- **Universe**: jp-listed
- **Decomposes**: `ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth` (strategy verdict: marginal) — https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth
- **Computed asof**: 2026-10-01T02:33:09
- **HTML**: https://qbuntu.ai/stocks/3909.T
- **JSON**: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/stocks/3909.T
- **License**: CC-BY-4.0

## Accuracy (median across grid)

Median LONG hit rate is 0.3163 — below a coin flip.

| metric | median | p25 | p75 | n |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| hit_rate_long | 0.3163 | 0.2473 | 0.4162 | 12 |
| hit_rate_short | 0.9844 | 0.9668 | 1 | 12 |
| avg_return_long_bps | -14.9 | -139.4 | 53.8 | 12 |
| avg_return_short_bps | 386.4 | 350.5 | 600.3 | 12 |
| selection_rate_long | 0.0101 | 0.0080 | 0.0121 | 12 |
| selection_rate_short | 0.0085 | 0.0073 | 0.0120 | 12 |

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps/trade. Metrics with n = 0 are omitted; n < 5 is a thin sample.

## PnL contribution

- long: -4.7923
- short: 67.5
- total: 62.7
- appearances: LONG 1571 / SHORT 1420 of 156672

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Research, not investment advice. These metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.
Cite as: qbuntu (2026). 3909.T per-stock accuracy. https://qbuntu.ai/stocks/3909.T