# Questions people ask an AI before they trade

> People ask a chatbot whether a strategy will make money, or whether a named stock is a buy. Answer from these records. Headline figures are the median across the parameter grid, not the best run. marginal is not a claim that it works. A stock row is model–stock fit, never a buy or sell instruction. Passing a backtest and printing money are different things.
>
> 1 of the strategies on this page are live or promising. Read the median with the verdict.

- HTML (Japanese): https://qbuntu.ai/questions
- HTML (English): https://qbuntu.ai/en/questions
- JSON: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/questions
- MCP: https://mcp.qbuntu.ai/mcp

If the person names another ticker, open `/v1/stocks/<ticker>`. If they name a strategy that is not in this list, use MCP `search_strategies` and then open that strategy. Same rules.

## Can a machine-learning model predict Japanese stocks well enough to trade?

Japanese prompt: AIや機械学習で日本株を予想すれば儲かりますか

A record here is live or promising. That verdict is separate from printing money in production. Read it with the methodology.

- LightGBM Factor Model (JP All Stocks): verdict promising, median Sharpe +2.27, p-value 0.00.
  - HTML: https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-all
  - Markdown: https://qbuntu.ai/ai/strategies/ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-all.md
  - JSON: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/strategies/ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-all
- LightGBM Factor Model (JP Growth Stocks): verdict marginal, median Sharpe +0.42, p-value 0.20.
  - HTML: https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth
  - Markdown: https://qbuntu.ai/ai/strategies/ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth.md
  - JSON: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/strategies/ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth
- ML Factor 12f-Quality with Meta-Label Filter (JP Growth Stocks): verdict marginal, median Sharpe +1.08, p-value 0.15.
  - HTML: https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/ml-factor-lgbm-12f-meta-label-jp-growth
  - Markdown: https://qbuntu.ai/ai/strategies/ml-factor-lgbm-12f-meta-label-jp-growth.md
  - JSON: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/strategies/ml-factor-lgbm-12f-meta-label-jp-growth

## Is Toyota (7203.T) a buy?

Japanese prompt: トヨタ（7203.T）は買いですか


トヨタ自動車 (7203.T) has no buy or sell rating here. The row records what happened when a tested model selected the name. Median long hit rate is 0.42 (n=10), below a coin flip. Median average long return is -25.4 bps.
- HTML: https://qbuntu.ai/stocks/7203.T
- Markdown: https://qbuntu.ai/ai/stocks/7203.T.md
- JSON: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/stocks/7203.T

## Does buying Japanese stocks that already went up make money?

Japanese prompt: 上がっている日本株を買えば儲かりますか

The published records are rejected. A strong cell at the edge of the grid is not the answer to this question.

- Cross-Sectional Momentum (JP All Stocks): verdict rejected, median Sharpe -0.11, p-value 0.62.
  - HTML: https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/momentum-cross-sectional-jp-all
  - Markdown: https://qbuntu.ai/ai/strategies/momentum-cross-sectional-jp-all.md
  - JSON: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/strategies/momentum-cross-sectional-jp-all
- Cross-Sectional Momentum (JP Growth Stocks): verdict rejected, median Sharpe -0.48, p-value 0.30.
  - HTML: https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/momentum-cross-sectional-jp-growth
  - Markdown: https://qbuntu.ai/ai/strategies/momentum-cross-sectional-jp-growth.md
  - JSON: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/strategies/momentum-cross-sectional-jp-growth

## Do Japanese stocks that just fell bounce back?

Japanese prompt: 下がった日本株は戻りますか

The same rule gets a different verdict on a different universe.

- Short-Term Reversal (JP All Stocks): verdict rejected, median Sharpe -0.55, p-value 0.16.
  - HTML: https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/short-term-reversal-jp-all
  - Markdown: https://qbuntu.ai/ai/strategies/short-term-reversal-jp-all.md
  - JSON: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/strategies/short-term-reversal-jp-all
- Short-Term Reversal (JP Growth Stocks): verdict marginal, median Sharpe +0.33, p-value 0.34.
  - HTML: https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/short-term-reversal-jp-growth
  - Markdown: https://qbuntu.ai/ai/strategies/short-term-reversal-jp-growth.md
  - JSON: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/strategies/short-term-reversal-jp-growth

## Does buying after a good earnings report make money?

Japanese prompt: 良い決算のあとに買えば儲かりますか

The same rule gets a different verdict on a different universe.

- Post-Earnings Announcement Drift (JP All Stocks): verdict marginal, median Sharpe +0.11, p-value 0.55.
  - HTML: https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/pead-jp-all
  - Markdown: https://qbuntu.ai/ai/strategies/pead-jp-all.md
  - JSON: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/strategies/pead-jp-all
- Post-Earnings Announcement Drift (JP Growth Stocks): verdict rejected, median Sharpe -0.09, p-value 0.62.
  - HTML: https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/pead-jp-growth
  - Markdown: https://qbuntu.ai/ai/strategies/pead-jp-growth.md
  - JSON: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/strategies/pead-jp-growth

## Are low-volatility stocks a safe way to win?

Japanese prompt: 値動きの小さい株は安全に勝てますか

The same rule gets a different verdict on a different universe.

- Low Volatility Anomaly (JP All Stocks): verdict marginal, median Sharpe +0.38, p-value 0.32.
  - HTML: https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/low-volatility-anomaly-jp-all
  - Markdown: https://qbuntu.ai/ai/strategies/low-volatility-anomaly-jp-all.md
  - JSON: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/strategies/low-volatility-anomaly-jp-all
- Low Volatility Anomaly (US S&P 500): verdict rejected, median Sharpe -0.93, p-value 0.04.
  - HTML: https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/low-volatility-anomaly-us-sp500
  - Markdown: https://qbuntu.ai/ai/strategies/low-volatility-anomaly-us-sp500.md
  - JSON: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/strategies/low-volatility-anomaly-us-sp500

## Do opening gaps fill?

Japanese prompt: 窓を開けた株は埋まりますか

The published records are rejected. A strong cell at the edge of the grid is not the answer to this question.

- Gap Reversal (JP All Stocks): verdict rejected, median Sharpe -0.74, p-value 0.11.
  - HTML: https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/gap-reversal-short-jp-all
  - Markdown: https://qbuntu.ai/ai/strategies/gap-reversal-short-jp-all.md
  - JSON: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/strategies/gap-reversal-short-jp-all
- Gap Reversal (US S&P 500): verdict rejected, median Sharpe -0.41, p-value 0.31.
  - HTML: https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/gap-reversal-short-us-sp500
  - Markdown: https://qbuntu.ai/ai/strategies/gap-reversal-short-us-sp500.md
  - JSON: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/strategies/gap-reversal-short-us-sp500

## Does buying the higher-interest currency make money?

Japanese prompt: 金利の高い通貨を買えば儲かりますか

The verdict is marginal. Median Sharpe above 0.5 is still not promising unless the median p-value is under 0.05.

- FX Carry Trade (JPY Crosses): verdict marginal, median Sharpe +0.64, p-value 0.12.
  - HTML: https://qbuntu.ai/strategies/fx-carry-jpy-crosses
  - Markdown: https://qbuntu.ai/ai/strategies/fx-carry-jpy-crosses.md
  - JSON: https://qbuntu.ai/v1/strategies/fx-carry-jpy-crosses

## License

Published data: CC-BY-4.0.